No matter your political alignment, most people can agree that the results of the 2024 election will alter the course of several key issues, including decarbonization. No matter the final outcome, electric vehicles (EVs) have a stated presence in all sectors, and climate change is not suddenly going to become a forgotten movement that no longer bears weight on our national and global future.
While a recent article on S&P Global’s site pointed to a Harris win as an accelerant to wider EV adoption, Stephanie Brinley, an associate director at S&P Global Mobility, stated the trend will not be affected by the election outcome, but it could affect “the pace of change.” Tariffs on China — the article highlights — is a flame being fanned by both sides of the aisle, which could be a boost to the domestic production of EV batteries.
Calling the current stances a “swift politicization” of EVs, a recent Verge article highlights varying opinions on how this technology has affected the election landscape. For example, the article points to Trump’s earlier claim that EVs will “’kill’ the American auto industry and ‘assassinate’ jobs,” while later touting Tesla CEO Elon Musk as feverish supporter. The article also shows that Harris has not given EVs the universal green light, telling a crowd in Flint, Michigan, that she “will never tell you what kind of car you have to drive.”
Barron’s, a leading financial publication, points to the effect that certain tax incentives could have on the current and continued EV market. While Harris has said she will continue to support EV tax credits, many believe that Trump will eliminate them soon after taking office, which could negatively affect the EV market. But, the former president’s vow to raise tariffs on products manufactured in Mexico but sold in the U.S., could, as a result, benefit EV makers like Tesla, which builds many of its EVs in the U.S.
In most cases, these viewpoints concern the consumer EV market, but as commercial and consumer trends tend to mirror each other — and sometimes outpace them — it is important to keep an eye on both. We are far from an EV takeover when we look at the current state of commercial transportation, but the winds of change are blowing beyond California and into more and more states in the form of regulations and mandates. Where the upcoming election might drive the EV market is still — for now — an uncharted path.
